ERTF

Economic Research and Training Foundation

Modest Uptick in CPI Inflation

SBI research - Apr 13, 2026

MODEST UPTICK IN CPI INFLATION: VOLATILITY FEARS MAY PLAGUE IMPORTED INFLATION EVEN AS FY27 TO BE A YEAR WITH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL, THOUGH THE IMPACT ON FOOD PRICES LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS POINT: RATE

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Bullion Holds Base as Risk Premium Returns

Mr Gnanasekar T - Apr 13, 2026

Teaser: Gold edged up to $4,780 per ounce on Friday, heading for a third straight weekly gain, buoyed by a weaker dollar and investor focus on US-Iran diplomatic talks in Islamabad this weekend. The

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The watchword in this VUCA world is ‘Security’

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, IMC-ERTF - Apr 10, 2026

We are living in a disruptive decade, having witnessed a series of catastrophic events last six years. Starting with the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020 and followed by the Russia-Ukraine military ac

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Fertilizer –move to smarter, greener, indigenous nutrients

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, IMC-ERTF - Apr 06, 2026

The role of fertilizers as one of the three critical inputs for agricultural crops production and productivity is well recognized. For agrarian economies, fertilizers have been, for decades, the ‘sil

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Safe-Haven Appeal Fades as Oil Spike Lifts Inflation Risks

Mr Gnanasekar T - Apr 06, 2026

Teaser: Gold prices fell over 4% to $4,600 per ounce on Thursday, halting a four day winning streak, as the US currency and oil prices soared following President Donald Trump's promise to continue st

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Crude, Crops and Currency (3 Cs) set to elevate India’s inflation risk

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, IMC-ERTF - Mar 31, 2026

Into its fifth week, the ongoing military conflict in the Persian Gulf region does not show any clear sign of abating. Statements from players in the war drama are confusing rather than clarifying. A

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Rupee Needs Unambiguous Support to Hold the Forte as the Shock Takes New Dimension

SBI ERD - Mar 30, 2026

Unprecedented times call for unequivocal, unprecedented and unambiguous supports. With parallels rife between 2013 and present in terms of supporting the rupee, it is pertinent to understand the diff

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Bullion Volatility Persists as Energy Shock Reshapes Market Outlook

Mr Gnanasekar T - Mar 30, 2026

Teaser: Gold fell nearly 1% to around $4,450 on Monday, paring gains from the previous session as the Middle East conflict entered its fifth week with no clear resolution in sight. As Iran-backed Hou

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Oil excise cut to shield customers from the vagaries of oil price jump

SBI Research - Mar 27, 2026

Oil excise cut to shield customers from the vagaries of oil price jump… Centre to forego revenue of around Rs 1.1 lakh crore….time for the States to adjust VAT also?

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Such a Long Journey

SBI Research - Mar 23, 2026

Global headwinds and proliferating series of exogenous shocks create a TINA (There Is No Alternative) syndrome for world currencies as unconnected nations are embroiled in a proxy war that has multi

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Be wary of gold price correction

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, IMC-ERTF - Mar 20, 2026

Precious metals in general and gold in particular enjoyed a stellar run in 2025 with the yellow metal reaching a record high price of $ 4550 a troy ounce at the end of the year reflecting a meteoric

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Are Rabi 2026 crop estimates realistic?

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, IMC-ERTF - Mar 14, 2026

Last week, the Union Ministry of Agriculture released the second advance estimate of crop production for 2025-26 covering mainly Rabi crops. The government has claimed record production of wheat 120

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Energy price spike sure to impact import dependent countries

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, IMC-ERTF - Mar 14, 2026

The ongoing military conflict in West Asia involving Israel and the US on the one side and Iran on the other has heightened the geopolitical tensions and geo-economic uncertainty. How long the confli

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Oil, Nerves and a Narrow Strait

Ms Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank - Mar 11, 2026

India’s macro story had been looking comfortably “Goldilocks” until now, with growth holding firm, inflation moderating and external risks appearing manageable, only for the Middle East crisis to rei

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SBI research report, with credit given to the SBI Economic Research Department team

SBI Economic Research Department - Mar 07, 2026

Should the raging conflict in Middle East proliferate asymmetrically across jurisdictions, asset classes and supply chains, the cumulative shock could trigger a new wave of Inflation globally: In

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Facts about India-US Trade Deal

Source: SBI Economic Research Team - Feb 12, 2026

The trade deal with the US, back on the heels of wide arc of trade deals with EU & UK, catapults India to a unique strategic position wherein the country, as also its exporters are poised to ga

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Wheat crop faces looming risk of heat and moisture stress

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, ERTF - Feb 11, 2026

Even as the upcoming wheat crop is in the process of maturing and gradually readying for harvest in the next few weeks, rising day temperatures across many states in northern India may escalate risks

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SBI Special Report (India to become an upper-middle-income country)

- Jan 19, 2026

India set to transition to Upper Middle-Income Country by 2030 concurrently with becoming the 3rd Largest Economy in 2028..India at 95th percentile of global growth distribution for the decade ended

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Global coal demand set to slow gradually

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, ERTF - Jan 09, 2026

As traditional feedstock, coal is the cornerstone of electricity generation in many countries. Same time, it is the single largest source of carbon dioxide emissions globally. This combination places

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INDIA’S NUTRITION CHALLENGE

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, ERTF - Dec 10, 2025

For a country aspiring to reach a $5-trillion GDP and already the world’s fastest-growing major economy, India’s nutrition status leaves much to be desired.
The country is not food-insecure, but

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WGC Gold Outlook 2026

- Dec 04, 2025

Gold has experienced a remarkable 2025, achieving over 50 all-time highs and returning over 60%.1 This performance has been supported by a combination of heightened geopolitical and economic uncertai

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Why Credit Access Remains a Statistical Mirage for Small Manufacturers

Sanket Kapadnis, Founder, ThinkSDG Advisors - Dec 01, 2025

Introduction: The Invisible Cash Flow CrisisIn India’s manufacturing landscape, the story of small enterprises often begins and ends with cash. Consider a medi

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Playing’ the palm oil price game

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, ERTF - Nov 27, 2025

In the basket of global vegetable oils that comprises oils of soy, rapeseed, sunseed, cottonseed, groundnut, coconut and a few more oil crops, palm oil stands out for its dominance. Palm oil represen

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Government Announces Implementation of Four Labour Codes to Simplify and Streamline Labour Laws

NA - Nov 21, 2025

Four Labour Codes Herald Transformational Change: Better Wages, Safety, Social Security & Enhanced Welfare for India’s Workforce

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Advance Estimates of Kharif 2025-26 crops production inexplicably delayed

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, ERTF - Nov 19, 2025

It is past mid-November and yet there is no sign of the ‘First Advance Estimates of Production’ of foodgrains, oilseeds and other commercial crops for the 2025-26 Kharif season. It is unclear what is

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Forging the Future of India’s Stainless Steel Industry

Krishna Shah - Oct 30, 2025

India’s stainless steel utensil industry stands as one of the country’s quiet manufacturing triumphs — built on ingenuity, driven by micro and small enterprises, and respected across global markets

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Caution warranted in current bullion market

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, ERTF - Oct 14, 2025

Gold and silver prices have reached record levels in the international market. Gold recently crossed the psychological $ 4,000 a troy ounce mark gaining nearly 50 percent since the start of the ye

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Gold’s enduring value for global economy

Sanjay Mehta - Oct 14, 2025

Gold has been a cornerstone of the global economy for centuries, serving as a store of value, a medium of exchange, and a hedge against financial uncertainty. While no longer the official basis of

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Manifesting a Better Bharat with AI

Sanjay Mehta - Oct 14, 2025

India today stands at the threshold of a historic transformation, empowered by the strength of its digital revolution. With more than 950 million internet users, the country represents the second-

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Changing Crop Choices: Why Indian Farmers Are Moving Away from Cotton and Oilseeds in 2025

Krishna Shah - Oct 14, 2025

According to a report by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, the total area sown under Kharif crops until September 26, 2025, has reached 112.073 crore hectares. This represents an incre

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Production Outlook for Key Kharif 2025 Crops

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, IMC-ERTF - Sep 29, 2025

IMC-ERTF (Economic Research and Training Foundation) is pleased to announce it Kharif 2025 crop production outlook following the gradual withdrawal of southwest monsoon. The report is resear

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Indonesia India bilateral trade opportunities

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, ERTF - Jun 10, 2025

India and Indonesia, two major economies in the Indo-Pacific, share a long-standing relationship and possess significant unrealized bilateral trade potential. While trade has grown substantially, bot

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Union Budget FY 27 – Farm Policy Suggestions

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, ERTF - Jan 20, 2026

‘A bold peasantry, the country’s pride;Once destroyed can never be supplied’.(Oliver Goldsmith in ‘The Deserted Villa

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Key Macro Themes for 2026

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, ERTF - Dec 31, 2025

Marked by geo-economic and geopolitical headwinds, the current year 2025 is on its way out; but a plethora of challenges will continue to haunt the global economy in the upcoming year 2026.
The ne

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Case for customs duty hike on gold

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, ERTF - Jan 28, 2026

In July 2024, the government sharply reduced the total customs duty on gold import from a high of 15% to 6% (comprising 5% basic customs duty and 1% agri infra development cess) providing a major boo

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Budget must raise customs duty on vegetable oil import

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, ERTF - Jan 28, 2026

To meet the widening domestic supply shortfall, India imports annually 15-16 million tonnes of various oils (palm, soy, sun) valued at $ 17-18 Billion. At the same time, domestic oilseed growers face

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The Allure of Glittering Gold

- Sep 23, 2025

Background: In pursuance of the decision to run blogs on topical subjects, ERTF chose Gold Market as the subject that could potentially elicit interesting yet different shades of opinion from domain

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Trump, Tariffs, Tradewar and Turmoil

- Sep 23, 2025

The much-awaited US reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2 have jolted the world with a few countries in Asia becoming the target of Trump ire (China, Vietnam, Thailand) while the blow to India is r

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The Present and Future of AI

Raj Nair - Sep 23, 2025

Have you heard of Gemma 3, Sec- Gemini v1, DeepSeek, Gemini 2.0, etc.? Don’t worry because more 95% of the people around you have not heard of about these AI models, let alone know anything about the

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USA – India BTA and scenario of possible outcomes

G. Chandrashekhar - Sep 23, 2025

The US faces the problem of ‘twin deficit’ that is fiscal deficit and trade deficit. The policy of free trade or liberal import – intended to support consumers – has resulted in trade deficit.Over th

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Contours of India UK FTA set to boost economic opportunities

G. Chandrashekhar - Sep 23, 2025

After over three years of negotiations that began in January 2022, the India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was recently concluded and formally announced on May 6, 2025. Yet, there is a road ahead to

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Modernizing-cotton cultivation through tech infusion is imperative

G. Chandrashekhar - Sep 23, 2025

Cotton is an important cash crop for our country. It is not merely an agricultural crop but an industrial commodity too as it has multiple uses, food and non-food. Cotton represents 5F – Fibre, Food,

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India’s steel sector: are we ready for the big leap?

G. Chandrashekhar - Sep 23, 2025

Steel is a critical industrial metal for growth and development of several sectors including infrastructure, construction, defense, mobility and so on. No wonder, there is a strong positive correlati

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For Vietnam, India can be a reliable partner

G. Chandrashekhar - Sep 23, 2025

At the recently concluded Asia Agri Food Conference in Ho Chi Min City, several ideas to cement India Vietnam partnership in the area of agriculture and agribusiness came to the fore.The remarkable g

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India should tie up with the US for critical minerals

G. Chandrashekhar - Sep 23, 2025

The proposed India-USA Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) is still under intense negotiation. While, it is widely believed the US is keen to open up India’s farm sector (soybean cotton, corn, chicken le

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Unilateral Tariff Imposition of 25% by President Donald Trump, USA

Mr. Suresh Kotak - Sep 23, 2025

IMC-ERTF a quick research response has made a brief preliminary observation of the Unilateral and additional Ad Valorem Tariff Duty @ 25% form 1st Aug’25. This measure additionally compounded by pena

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Five mega trends set to drive commodities

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, ERTF - Oct 06, 2025

It is well recognized that India’s growth over the next two decades or so will be largely driven by a variety of commodities including energy products (conventional and non-conventional), metals (i

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The Indian Manufacturing MSME Paradox: Backbone Without a Growth Spine

Sanket Kapadnis, Founder, ThinkSDG Advisors - Oct 06, 2025

IntroductionIndia’s manufacturing MSMEs are the quiet workhorses of the economy. They contribute roughly 30% to GDP and account for nearly half of the country’s

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India’s Cotton Outlook Brightens: CAI Projects Higher Closing Stocks for 2025–26 Season

Krishna Shah - Nov 13, 2025

India’s cotton sector is set for a stronger supply position in the 2025–26 season, with the Cotton Association of India (CAI) projecting a 54% rise in closing stocks by the end of September 2026. The

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Gold's future trajectory

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, ERTF - Dec 10, 2025

According to a report by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the rise in gold prices since the beginning of September has been amplified by speculative purchases by retail investors, thereb

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USA Threatens Tariff on Indian Rice

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, ERTF - Dec 10, 2025

The hot topic in the market for the last two days is the threat of tariff imposition on India's rice exports to the US on the grounds of 'dumping'. Already Indian rice exports to the US are burdened

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Disengaging with Iran only sensible way out

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, ERTF - Jan 19, 2026

‘In international relations, there are no permanent friends, no permanent enemies, only permanent interests’, g

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SEBI Press release dated 8 November 2025, on Digital Gold

Bhargava Vaidya - Nov 11, 2025

“Digital gold” is a relatively new product, which has been in the market for about a few years.So, what is digital Gold? Digital gold is a way to purchase gold electronically through an online

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METALTRENDZZ Webinar Precious Metals Market Dynamics 2026 Q1 December 6, 2025

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, ERTF - Dec 10, 2025

Disclaimer

Precious metals – Gold, Sil

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LEAD MARKET OUTLOOK 2026 AMID GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC SETTING

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, ERTF - Dec 15, 2025

The 2020s has been a disruptive decade so far. The world has faced multiple headwinds and challenges since early 2020. Covid-19 pandemic, two wars (Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas), elevated levels o

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Nutrition Programs Deliver Positive Outcomes

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, ERTF - Dec 31, 2025

India’s poor nutrition status is well-documented. Pervasive malnutrition / under-nutrition especially in rural parts of the country is actually a hidden or unaccounted cost the country pays.
Under

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Millets: Converting the mirage to meaningful miracle

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, ERTF - Jan 19, 2026

India is the world’s largest producer of millets. The year 2024-25 witnessed a record 18.6 million tonnes production of what we call nutri-cereals (aka Shree Anna). Millets were staple diet of daily

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Budget must focus on critical minerals

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, ERTF - Jan 28, 2026

The Indian economy is in an expansionary phase. Its future growth and national security are closely tied to its ability to secure and develop strategic commodities – critical minerals and rare earths

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Gold, Silver Retreat as Volatility Overrides Dovish Signals

Gnanasekar Thiagarajan - Feb 17, 2026

Teaser: Gold and silver ended lower on the week despite sharp intraday rebounds, with price action reflecting continued volatility and fragile positioning rather than a sustained recovery. In the

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Boxed Emotions: Packaging for the Eco Generation

Bhushan Yengade - Oct 15, 2025

What Gen Z Really Wants in Packaging: More Than Just a Box Packaging today is no longer just a protective wrapper, it’s a storyteller, a sustainability statement, and a silent salesperson

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Gold may consolidate after sharp correction

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, ERTF - Nov 03, 2025

After a remarkable 60 percent increase since the start of the year and nine-week winning run to reach a record high of $ 4380 a troy ounce, the gold bull run took a breather 10 days ago with a shar

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Press Information Bureau Government of India Ministry of Commerce & Industry

- Feb 11, 2026

The United States of America (United States) and India are pleased to announce that they have reached a framework for an Interim Agreement re

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Trump threatens India with punitive tariff for buying Russian oil

G. Chandrashekhar - Sep 23, 2025

India is facing a double whammy from the US President Donald Trump despite the fact that the two countries are currently negotiating a bilateral trade agreement intended to achieve ambitious outcomes

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When dependency becomes vulnerability

G. Chandrashekhar - Sep 23, 2025

Trump’s 50 percent tariff (basic 25% plus additional 25%) on Indian exports to the US has generated panic not only within the government circles but also in labour intensive export sectors like texti

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Unlocking the Potential of FPOs to Achieve Food & Fibre Security for India

Manish Daga - Sep 23, 2025

India’s journey toward food and fibre security is at a critical juncture. With over 6.5 million cotton farmers and millions more engaged in food crops, the stakes have never been higher. Climate chan

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Reimagining GCCs: Building India’s Resilience against Tariffs and Layoffs

- Sep 23, 2025

India is facing a dual disruption: exporters struggling under steep tariffs and IT professionals experiencing layoffs despite record industry profits. Though from different worlds, both share a commo

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GCCs can help build resilience against uncertainty

G. Chandrashekhar - Sep 23, 2025

The world is currently going through VUCA conditions – volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. Multiple headwinds buffet the world and create unprecedented and unforeseen turbulence. Slowi

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How to Measure Sustainability

G. Chandrashekhar - Sep 23, 2025

The earth’s risk profile is changing. Global warming / Climate change is now a recognized real risk to human welfare. The world has taken cognizance of this risk.Across the world, policymakers, busin

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Wheat: not by MSP alone

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, IMC-ERTF - Oct 03, 2025

What will the hike in minimum support price (MSP) for wheat for crop year 2025-26 (marketing year 2026-27) approved by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs achieve?
For the upcoming harvest

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Blog

Modest Uptick in CPI Inflation

Bullion Holds Base as Risk Premium Returns

The watchword in this VUCA world is ‘Security’

Fertilizer –move to smarter, greener, indigenous nutrients

Safe-Haven Appeal Fades as Oil Spike Lifts Inflation Risks

Crude, Crops and Currency (3 Cs) set to elevate India’s inflation risk

Rupee Needs Unambiguous Support to Hold the Forte as the Shock Takes New Dimension

Bullion Volatility Persists as Energy Shock Reshapes Market Outlook

Oil excise cut to shield customers from the vagaries of oil price jump

Such a Long Journey

Be wary of gold price correction

Are Rabi 2026 crop estimates realistic?

Energy price spike sure to impact import dependent countries

Oil, Nerves and a Narrow Strait

SBI research report, with credit given to the SBI Economic Research Department team

Facts about India-US Trade Deal

Wheat crop faces looming risk of heat and moisture stress

SBI Special Report (India to become an upper-middle-income country)

Global coal demand set to slow gradually

INDIA’S NUTRITION CHALLENGE

WGC Gold Outlook 2026

Why Credit Access Remains a Statistical Mirage for Small Manufacturers

Playing’ the palm oil price game

Government Announces Implementation of Four Labour Codes to Simplify and Streamline Labour Laws

Advance Estimates of Kharif 2025-26 crops production inexplicably delayed

Forging the Future of India’s Stainless Steel Industry

Caution warranted in current bullion market

Gold’s enduring value for global economy

Manifesting a Better Bharat with AI

Changing Crop Choices: Why Indian Farmers Are Moving Away from Cotton and Oilseeds in 2025

Production Outlook for Key Kharif 2025 Crops

Indonesia India bilateral trade opportunities

Union Budget FY 27 – Farm Policy Suggestions

Key Macro Themes for 2026

Case for customs duty hike on gold

Budget must raise customs duty on vegetable oil import

The Allure of Glittering Gold

Trump, Tariffs, Tradewar and Turmoil

The Present and Future of AI

USA – India BTA and scenario of possible outcomes

Contours of India UK FTA set to boost economic opportunities

Modernizing-cotton cultivation through tech infusion is imperative

India’s steel sector: are we ready for the big leap?

For Vietnam, India can be a reliable partner

India should tie up with the US for critical minerals

Unilateral Tariff Imposition of 25% by President Donald Trump, USA

Five mega trends set to drive commodities

The Indian Manufacturing MSME Paradox: Backbone Without a Growth Spine

India’s Cotton Outlook Brightens: CAI Projects Higher Closing Stocks for 2025–26 Season

Gold's future trajectory

USA Threatens Tariff on Indian Rice

Disengaging with Iran only sensible way out

SEBI Press release dated 8 November 2025, on Digital Gold

METALTRENDZZ Webinar Precious Metals Market Dynamics 2026 Q1 December 6, 2025

LEAD MARKET OUTLOOK 2026 AMID GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC SETTING

Nutrition Programs Deliver Positive Outcomes

Millets: Converting the mirage to meaningful miracle

Budget must focus on critical minerals

Gold, Silver Retreat as Volatility Overrides Dovish Signals

Boxed Emotions: Packaging for the Eco Generation

Gold may consolidate after sharp correction

Press Information Bureau Government of India Ministry of Commerce & Industry

Trump threatens India with punitive tariff for buying Russian oil

When dependency becomes vulnerability

Unlocking the Potential of FPOs to Achieve Food & Fibre Security for India

Reimagining GCCs: Building India’s Resilience against Tariffs and Layoffs

GCCs can help build resilience against uncertainty

How to Measure Sustainability

Wheat: not by MSP alone