Introduction: Gold and silver recovered during the previous week after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, while easing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran pushed crude oil prices sharply lower and reduced immediate inflation concerns. A weaker U.S. dollar also improved bullion's appeal, although expectations that the Fed could still tighten policy later this year limited stronger gains. Physical demand remained resilient across Asia, helping cushion downside pressure despite elevated prices. Going into the coming week, precious metals are expected to remain sensitive to U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve commentary and movements in the dollar. Any renewed geopolitical tensions or weaker macroeconomic indicators could revive safe-haven demand, while stronger economic data may reinforce higher-for longer interest rate expectations and limit upside. 

WTI crude oil began the previous week on a firm footing as renewed tensions between the United States and Iran fueled concerns over potential supply disruptions across the Middle East, keeping a sizeable geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices. However, sentiment shifted sharply in the second half of the week after Washington suspended military operations, raising hopes of a diplomatic resolution and easing fears over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The retreat in geopolitical tensions, combined with expectations of higher OPEC+ production from September and resilient non-OPEC supply growth, encouraged broad profit-taking and pushed prices back towards pre-conflict levels. Going into the coming week, crude prices are expected to remain driven by developments in U.S.-Iran diplomacy, OPEC+ policy, global inventory trends and macroeconomic data, with any renewed escalation likely to quickly restore upside risk. 

Gold climbed above $4,050 an ounce on Monday, recovering losses from the previous session after President Donald Trump said peace talks with Iran will resume today, sending oil prices lower and easing concerns over inflation and the interest rate outlook. Trump said key Middle Eastern allies, including Saudi Arabia, urged him to suspend planned strikes and pursue a diplomatic agreement instead, while reiterating his call for the swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors also turned their focus to a packed week of US labour market data, highlighted by Friday’s closely watched monthly jobs report. Last week, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, although three officials dissented, warning that delaying action for too long could eventually require more aggressive policy tightening. Markets are currently pricing in about a 68% chance of a 25-basis point Fed rate hike in September.

Silver climbed above $58 an ounce on Monday, recovering losses from the previous session after President Donald Trump said peace talks with Iran will resume today, sending oil prices lower and easing concerns over inflation and the interest rate outlook. Trump said key Middle Eastern allies, including Saudi Arabia, urged him to suspend planned strikes and pursue a diplomatic agreement instead, while reiterating his call for the swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors also turned their focus to a packed week of US labour market data, highlighted by Friday’s closely watched monthly jobs report. Last week, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, although three officials dissented, warning that delaying action for too long could eventually require more aggressive policy tightening. Markets are currently pricing in about a 68% chance of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September. 

Crude oil dropped more than 4% toward $80 per barrel on Monday after surging over 20% in July, as President Donald Trump announced that peace talks with Iran will resume today after he cancelled a planned military strike against the Islamic Republic. Trump said key Middle Eastern allies, including Saudi Arabia, urged him to suspend the attacks and prioritize negotiations, while reiterating his call for the swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Last month, oil prices climbed about 23% after renewed hostilities between the US and Iran shattered the interim peace agreement, with supply disruptions extending from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea. Meanwhile, major OPEC+ producers approved another modest increase in production quotas, completing the planned restoration of output cuts introduced in 2023 and leaving room to boost supplies further once the Middle East conflict comes to an end. 

Technical View: $80.21. Price displays mildly bullish weekly signals in the daily charts. This supports a breakout past the daily super-trend at 89.40 towards 92.60. Supports rest near 81.50 and 80.20, whilst an unexpected dip below 77.75 risks renewed selling.  

Copper futures climbed toward $6.5 per pound on Monday, reaching their highest level in two weeks as ongoing supply constraints continued to tighten market conditions. Analysts cited shortages of copper concentrate and scrap copper in top consumer China, driving treatment charges and market spreads higher. Traders also remained cautious over the prospect of new US tariffs on the metal, which has encouraged the diversion of copper shipments into the US. In addition, copper continued to draw support from its favourable long-term demand outlook, fuelled by the global shift toward clean energy and the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence data centres. Meanwhile, private data showed China's manufacturing activity slowed to a four-month low in July as output and new orders expanded at a weaker pace, dampening the demand outlook. The Politburo also indicated last week that it would continue relying on existing policy measures instead of rolling out broad-based stimulus.

Technical View: $6.52. Charts indicate a minor dip to supports where price could likely hold for a rise. Supports at $6.25/30. Resistance at $6.57/60. Only a decisive cross above $6.60 could likely take prices higher to $6.70 or even higher. Favored view is neutral to mildly bullish in the near term.