The 2020s has been a disruptive decade so far. The world has faced multiple headwinds and challenges since early 2020. Covid-19 pandemic, two wars (Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas), elevated levels of inflation and more recently, US-led trade tariffs have caused geo-economic uncertainty and geopolitical instability. 

As a result, the world is witnessing sanctions, protectionism, resource nationalism, price volatility, market uncertainty, and supply chain disruptions. Simply put, we are living in a VUCA world characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity.

What are the key themes for 2026?

• The possibility of a new global order following tariffs, trade deals and bilateral agreements  

• Artificial Intelligence is exerting a pervasive influence. Will AI be a shock absorber or a shock magnifier?

• Fiscal policy may remain supportive for growth

• US Federal Reserve rate cuts could be moderate; others may follow.

• The US economic exceptionalism is set to continue

• An oversupplied crude oil market is likely to be under pressure with Brent hovering around $ 60 a barrel +/- $ 2

• Global growth likely to be around 3 percent with China’s growth projected at around 4.5 percent and US slightly above of 2 percent.

It is in this backdrop that one must examine the global lead metal market dynamics. Interestingly, lead as a metal has lower exposure to primary supply risks; lower exposure to primary demand risks; faces smaller market imbalance; and has a relatively less-liquid market. Therefore, lead is more likely to remain less-volatile.

In Q3 2025, we saw base metals rebound; and in Q4 so far there has been a solid rally. LME Index has risen approximately 18 percent since the start of this year, with 9 percent increase since early September. The contribution of each metal has been different. Primarily, copper and aluminium drove the index up.

LME lead stocks are above the 5-year average. In 2025, the world lead market is in larger surplus than in 2024.

Lead Market Outlook 2026: From a supply perspective, the global mine supply is forecast to continue to recover next two years, with output rising in the Americas. China has lowered its reliance on imported refined lead and is increasing ore imports. So the Asian major will contribute more to refined lead production.

Recycling of refined lead that constitutes over two-thirds of total supply is expected to increase. It will keep overall availability broadly in line with demand.

The demand side, driven mainly by batteries (almost two-third used in internal combustion engine vehicles) is expected increase slightly due to growth in vehicle sales and battery replacement.

Lead utilization is expected to rise globally with expansion in China and fall in other places outside of China. The rise of lithium-ion tech is expected to impact lead demand.

Fundamentally, the world lead market in 2026 will be broadly balanced. Lead prices will remain in a tight range with a slight upside potential supported by improved macro outlook, lower interest rates, China stimulus and similar factors.

Lead metal may trade in the $ 1950 to $ 2100 a ton range (hovering around $ 2000/t). In the medium-term, under business-as-usual scenario, supply surpluses will expand.

Lead market will lead an uninteresting life. For lead to break out of this low-level equilibrium trap, it needs a structural bullish demand narrative. Where it will come from is unclear at the moment.

Innovation is the key to leveraging opportunities in the lead sector. The metal has unmatched circular economy and sustainability. It has high recyclability that is at once cost effective and eco-friendly.

The metal’s cost advantage, its affordability and proven reliability are its strengths. It has diverse applications in a growing market covering automotive sector, backup power / UPS in telecom, data centres as well as off-grid and hybrid power systems.

Technological advancements and greener recycling are other advantages. Recycling creates a closed loop supply chain. No wonder, recycling rate in developed markets is over 95 percent.

Also, lead recovery is a low temperature operation and it consumes significantly less energy than producing primary lead from ore.