With significant rainfall activity over western and central parts of the country since July 1, there are now stirrings of hope that the country may have escaped widespread drought this year following the threat of El Nino. Yet, concerns abound.

As of July 7, while the nationwide rainfall deficiency stands reduced at -24% (minus 24%), 19 of the 36 meteorological subdivisions (located mainly in northwest, east and northeast) have recorded 25% to 50% deficiency. Punjab, Haryana, Bihar and Jharkhand are affected. In other words, the spatial distribution has been uneven.

The latest report of the Central Weather Watch Group shows that the progress of area coverage for Kharif crops is lagging last year’s level, in some cases by a wide margin. Across crops, while the overall decline in planted area is 9.2 million hectares as of July 5, oilseeds and cotton have recorded sharper decline of 4.3 million ha and 1.9 million ha respectively.

With delayed onset and tardy progress of southwest monsoon, the planting window is closing rapidly. No more than 8-10 days are available that too for planting short duration crops like moong, maize and bajra.

The weekly sowing report from the Union Ministry of Agriculture is a compilation of reports filed by the State governments. Usually, there is a lag in data collection and dissemination. Therefore, it may be too early to draw any conclusion from the currently available data. By end-July we may have a reasonably good idea about planted area and by implication, the crop prospects.

It is becoming increasingly clear that spatial distribution of rainfall in the second-half of July and the whole of August would be crucial. It would be premature, and indeed speculative, to talk about harvest prospects at this point of time. 

Monsoon dependent agriculture usually does not spring major surprises. We have to brace for lower production of rice, coarse cereals, pulses, oilseeds and cotton. Shortages and food inflation cannot be wished away.

Depending on how the situation unfolds, New Delhi may have to review the diversion of feedstock like sugarcane, maize and rice for ethanol. Non-Basmati rice exports may be restricted in order ensure domestic availability. Larger import of vegetable oils, pulses and cotton is of course a given.