METALTRENDZZ Webinar Precious Metals Market Dynamics 2026 Q1 December 6, 2025

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, ERTF
Disclaimer 
  • Precious metals – Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium - occupy an important place in our commodity ecosystem. 
  • Silver, platinum, palladium increasingly used in industrial applications; they are not just precious metals, they double as industrial metals too.
  • Perception about these metals is changing as we live in a world:  
- under VUCA conditions 
- facing geo-economic uncertainty and geopolitical instability 
- decarbonizing in accelerated energy transition
- marked by constantly evolving hi-tech devices in diverse areas (defense, space, healthcare, mobility) that use these metals 

GOLD: 60% rally YTD in 2025 – best since 1979; 
  • Reflects structural, fundamental, seasonal and sentiment-driven demand 
  • Underscores gold’s unique role as both a hedge against geopolitical stress and a store of value in times of policy and institutional uncertainty 
  • Fed resuming its rate cut cycle with a 25bp cut each in Sep and Oct as well as guidance for further cuts in 2025–26 have lowered yields, further enhancing gold’s appeal
  • Historically, gold has outperformed during easing cycles 

Outlook 2026: Constructive outlook for gold into 2026 on a mix of structural shifts and macro factors, including Fed still on an easing cycle. Expect gold prices to remain elevated in 2026. This is consensus view in general. 

Caution on headwinds: factors that can potentially derail the rally:
  • Monetary Policy; If inflation proves stickier than expected, major central banks can pause rate cuts
  • USD: rebound in USD due improved US economic growth and capital flows will make USD a safe-haven 
  • Central bank buying: from 2024 to 2025, demand slowdown visible. Improved FX stability may lead to further slowdown
  • Geopolitics: Incipient signs of tensions easing are visible. Military war and trade war both are seen easing. It will reduce gold’s safe haven appeal
  • Weak physical demand: China’s imports falling.  
 
SILVER: Stellar outperformance YTD, up 100%; 
  • strongest in recent decades; outperformance outpaced other precious metals including gold. 
  • Surge reflected severe market tightness, strong macro tailwinds and spill-over strength from gold. 
  • Medium-term picture remains constructive. 
  • Silver benefits from its dual role as precious metal and industrial metal. 
  • Its safe-haven appeal mirrors gold’s drivers, while strong industrial demand from solar, EV and electronics sectors underpins “real consumption”. 
  • Expect silver prices to remain elevated in 2026; but be cautious with volatility. 

PLATINUM and PALLADIUM: 
  • Categorized as precious metals; but have industrial uses. Used in automotive sector in vehicle catalytic converters.   
  • Both supported by supply concerns, while fabrication demand side of the equation is not particularly strong.
  • Palladium a volatile exchange traded commodity; may witness large price swings.    
  • China recently started physically settled Futures contract. 

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