Gold and silver rallied strongly during the previous week, supported by a sharp deterioration in U.S. labour-market data that reduced expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike. July payrolls unexpectedly contracted by 23,000, while downward revisions to previous months reinforced concerns over slowing economic momentum, pushing the dollar and Treasury yields lower and strengthening demand for bullion. Gold consequently reached a seven-week high, while silver also recorded strong gains. Going into the week of August 10–14, attention will shift towards U.S. CPI and PPI inflation data for further clues on monetary policy. Softer inflation could further weaken rate-hike expectations and support precious metals, while renewed tensions surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz could provide an additional safe-haven catalyst. Persistent central-bank demand could also provide underlying support during corrections. WTI crude oil experienced another highly volatile week, plunging nearly 7% on Monday after President Trump held off on fresh military action against Iran, before recovering as uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz returned. Iran and Oman made progress towards establishing a shipping corridor, but disagreements over control, transit conditions and broader U.S.-Iran relations prevented a full reopening of the strategic waterway, keeping supply risks elevated. Going into the week of August 10–14, crude prices are expected to remain highly sensitive to Hormuz negotiations and actual shipping flows. Progress towards reopening could remove further geopolitical premium, while delays or renewed attacks could quickly restore upside pressure. OPEC+ supply policy, U.S. inventories and signs of weaker global demand will remain important secondary drivers. Chinese demand trends could additionally influence the broader near-term price outlook. 

Gold remained above $4,300 an ounce on Monday after surging more than 7% last week, supported by an unexpected contraction in the US labor market that led traders to reduce expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Data released Friday showed the US economy unexpectedly lost 23K jobs in July, following a downwardly revised 20K increase in June and falling well short of forecasts for an 80K gain. Markets now price around a 44% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in September, down from 67% a week earlier. Gold also held its gains even after oil prices climbed higher as uncertainty persisted over efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said talks with Oman were close to an agreement but denied holding direct negotiations with the US, despite Washington’s claims that a deal was imminent.

Silver traded near $64 an ounce on Monday after surging more than 10% last week, supported by an unexpected contraction in the US labor market that led traders to reduce expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Data released Friday showed the US economy unexpectedly lost 23K jobs in July, following a downwardly revised 20K increase in June and falling well short of forecasts for an 80K gain. Markets now price around a 44% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in September, down from 67% a week earlier. Silver also held its gains even after oil prices climbed higher as uncertainty persisted over efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said talks with Oman were close to an agreement but denied holding direct negotiations with the US, despite Washington’s claims that a deal was imminent. 

Crude Oil 

Crude oil climbed toward $79 per barrel on Monday, marking a third consecutive session of gains as uncertainty persisted over efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said over the weekend that talks with Oman on establishing a shipping route through the strategic waterway were nearing an agreement, but warned that any arrangement would not lead to an immediate reopening of Hormuz. Tehran also rejected direct negotiations with the US for now, citing breaches of the interim peace deal reached in June, while maintaining demands for an end to the US naval blockade, the lifting of sanctions and compensation for war damages. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump signalled patience amid mounting pressure on the US to reach a deal with Tehran. Elsewhere, Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen claimed an attack on Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery, while a tanker operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. came under attack in Hormuz over the weekend. 

Copper futures climbed above $6.7 per pound on Friday, reaching fresh record highs as mounting global supply risks continued to support the market. The Democratic Republic of Congo has banned exports of copper concentrates, highlighting a growing trend among resource-rich nations to retain more value by expanding domestic refining and processing capacity. Concerns over potential US import tariffs on copper also continued to divert supplies from international markets into US warehouses. Meanwhile, operations at part of Codelco’s flagship El Teniente mine could remain suspended for up to two years, adding to supply concerns. On the demand side, copper remained supported by a strong outlook for power grid upgrades and data center expansion as the global shift toward electrification and artificial intelligence continued to drive consumption.