It is past mid-November and yet there is no sign of the ‘First Advance Estimates of Production’ of foodgrains, oilseeds and other commercial crops for the 2025-26 Kharif season. It is unclear what is holding up the Union Ministry of Agriculture from publishing the estimates.

Major Kharif season harvests include rice, pulses (tur/arhar, urad), coarse cereals (maize), oilseeds (soybean, groundnut), cotton and sugarcane. 

Although the trade makes its own best-judgment estimates of production based on acreage, rainfall and other factors, value chain participants look forward to government’s official estimates that serve as second opinion. 

Often, the official estimates trigger administrative action like price support programs, storage limits, tariff changes and so on. Government’s official estimates are part of soft infrastructure for agri-trade. Data collection, analysis and dissemination is weakening.  

Of course, first estimates are subject to revision in the second and third round of estimates published subsequently based on additional inputs or information received. The central government compiles production estimates based on data received from the States. Crop cutting surveys are conducted to estimates yields.

The first advance estimates (Kharif season) are usually published in the last week of September when crop conditions crystallize. However, over the last three years, there has been a consistent delay in the publication of the first advance estimates. 

In 2021 and 2022, the first advance estimates were released on September 21. In 2023,  it was delayed by over a month and released on October 27. It got worse in 2024 with the release inordinately delayed until November 5. By this time, market participants already form a good idea of the harvest size.

This year (Kharif 2025) the estimates are yet to be published. This delay is unjustified and unexplained. Extended rains beyond September could be one reason; but many suspect it may serve as an excuse. Someone in the Agriculture Ministry must own up responsibility.

Such delays can trigger avoidable speculation in the marketplace about the real crop size and exert a bullish effect on prices.

Already the shortfall in the production of pulses, cotton and oilseeds is palpable. Private estimates show the harvest size is far less than the official production target and lower than even last year’s low harvest size.

Import volumes of cotton, pulses and edible oil are likely to increase in 2025-26. The government’s lackadaisical approach to crop data may likely trigger more speculative tendencies in agri trade. Is New Delhi listening?

= = = =