Last week, the Union Ministry of Agriculture released the second advance estimate of crop production for 2025-26 covering mainly Rabi crops. The government has claimed record production of wheat 120 Million Tonnes (MT), rapeseed/mustard 13.3 MT and sugarcane 500.2 MT.  

To those observing Indian agriculture closely for decades, the numbers appear overstated. 

Wheat: No doubt, plated area reached a new high of 33.4 million hectares (previous year 32.8 million ha). But, remember, over the last four weeks, major growing regions of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have faced rising day temperatures to levels that hurt wheat maturity. 

It is well known that Indian wheat is at the limit of heat tolerance. Increase in day temperature beyond 22 degrees Celsius hurts yields. Day temperatures have not been crop friendly in recent weeks. 

Worse, north India has faced lack of winter rains, which in turn reduces soil moisture necessary for grain formation. This is particularly evident in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. 

ERTF had highlighted the risk of heat stress and moisture stress to wheat crop in its Blog last month. 

As compared with the wheat production target of 119 MT, the government estimates the crop size at 120 MT. Analysis of state-wise acreage, rainfall, moisture conditions and heat does not support the harvest size of 120 MT. It appears to be overstated by about 10 percent. 

Rapeseed/Mustard: The planted area for this important Rabi oilseed crop is 8.94 million ha (last year 8.67 million ha) and production target is 13.9 MT. The government’s estimate is a record 13.3 MT although it is below the target. Again, the output estimate appears to be clearly overstated.

Even assuming average yield of 1200 kilograms/ha, total production would add up to 10.8 MT, and assuming an unlikely average yield of 1300 kg/ha would mean 11.7 MT, certainly nowhere near what the official estimate suggests. 

The government has hedged its position saying: ‘yield estimates are based on Crop Cutting Experiments (CCEs), previous trends and other contributing factors’. It has also claimed that the Rabi crop production is based on the average yield and are subject to change in the successive estimates on the receipt of better yield estimates based on CCEs.

So there’s likelihood these estimates will be revised over time, most likely downward. In other words, it would be risky for market participants to take trading positions based on the second advance estimate for Rabi crops like wheat and rapeseed/mustard. 

When you look at the 2025-26 season (Kharif and Rabi) production estimates published by the government, there are startling revelations. Production this year has fallen short of the annual target and has even declined from the previous year. 

Take cotton, a key cash crop for the country. As compared with the production target of 33.5 million bales (170 kg each), actual output is estimated over 10 percent lower at 29.1 million bales. This is even lower than last year’s 29.7 million bales. 

Same with soybean. While the target was fixed at an unrealistic 16.2 MT, production estimate this year is 12.7 MT. Last year, official estimate of 15.3 MT was itself highly overstated and no one believed the number. 

In pulses, tur/arhar (pigeon pea) production has been facing a consistent decline recent years. While production target for 2025-26 was 3.8 MT, actual production is estimated lower at 3.45 MT, which is lower than last year’s 3.62 MT. 

The agriculture sector has been facing challenges of land constraints, water shortage and climate change in recent years. There does not seem to be a coherent strategy to address the issues from a long-term perspective. The country is living season to season, not knowing what will hit us next. 

The next big hit is round the corner. Climatologists have warned of El Nino in the second half of 2026 that coincides with our Kharif season planting and harvest. India is potentially just one season away from a farm disaster. This is a waning bell, a wakeup call for policymakers.