India, the epicenter of the global pulses ecosystem, is currently in transition. From the 2025-26 season covering Kharif 2025 and Rabi 2026 harvests, the country is now looking forward to the 2026-27 season; and, the emerging picture is one of looming climate risk.

As a quick recap, India is the world’s largest producer, processor, importer and consumer of a wide variety of pulses. Many countries cultivate pulses with India as the major target market.

Over the last four years, the country’s planted area for pulses has actually declined by about one million hectares to 27.7 million hectares.

Production too is on a steady decline. From 27.3 million tonnes (MT) in 2021-22, harvest size is down to an estimated 26.0 MT in 2025-26. Two pulses namely gram /chana /chickpea (Rabi harvest) and pigeon pea / tur/ arhar (Kharif harvest) together account for over 50 percent of the country’s total annual pulses output.

Production decline has driven India’s pulses imports higher. From 2.5 MT in 2022-23, imports jumped to 4.7 MT the following year and then on to a record 7.2 MT in 2024-25. For 2025-26, total import is estimated slightly lower, yet still relatively high, at about 5.8 MT.

Outlook 2026-27: This is the crucial part. India faces the threat of El Nino during the upcoming Kharif season June to September 2026. El Nino phenomenon typically results in lower quantum of rainfall and dry weather conditions. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast ‘below normal’ rainfall for the upcoming Kharif season, expected to be 92 percent of the long period average of 870 millimeters. By end-May, IMD would provide region-wise rainfall outlook for the June – September period.

It is important to note, rather than the total quantum of rainfall at the end of the season, the spatial (geographical or region-wise) and temporal (month-wise) distribution of rains impact the crop prospects. The time of onset, progress and withdrawal of rains will have a bearing on planted area as well as growers’ input management and agronomic practice.

For the Kharif season, key pulse crops are pigeon pea (tur/arhar), black matpe (urad) and mung bean (green gram). The government has not yet announced production targets for Kharif crops for 2026-27, even as the El Nino risk looms and the ongoing military conflict in the Persian Gulf region has pushed fertilizer prices higher.

To augment availability, ensure affordable prices for consumers and at the same time protect domestic growers’ interests, the government has announced a mix of trade and tariff policy intervention. Liberal or ‘free’ import of several pulses has been extended for one more year until March 2027.

While pigeon pea and black matpe import is completely unrestricted, yellow pea import too is unrestricted but subject to online registration (of contract) for import

monitoring and customs duty of 30 percent ad valorem. Lentil (masur) and chickpea (chana) both attract 10 percent duty each. However, imports from LDC (least developed countries) bear no duty.

On current reckoning and subject to harvest prospects in the wake of looming El Nino, India’s pulses import is likely to rebound in 2026-27 with a surge in pigeon pea, black matpe and lentil volumes.

Same time, if the effect of El Nino turns out to be severe and Kharif crop production prospects deteriorate, then a combination of decline in rural incomes, rising food inflation and more expensive import due to weaker currency can potentially cause demand destruction.

Managing the complex set of variables would be a key challenge for Indian policymakers. A clearer picture of Kharif planting prospects would emerge by early June when the southwest monsoon sets-in.

Pulses Self-sufficiency Mission: In October 2025, the Indian government launched a National Pulses Mission with the aim to move towards self-sufficiency over a six-year period by 2030-31 with a financial outlay of about USD 1.2 Billion. Special focus would be on pigeon pea, black matpe and lentil.

While the mission’s objectives are laudable and ambitious, several ground-level challenges may continue to stymie growth. Cultivation of pulses on marginal lands, low level of input usage, lack of irrigation and no breakthrough in seed technology continue to affect pulses cultivation to result in low and unsteady yields.

Land constraints, water shortage and climate change exacerbate the situation. If anything, climate variability may worsen in the years ahead.