Southwest monsoon broke over the Kerala coast June 4 and is advancing northward. The season runs for four months from June to September. So, it is natural that concerns over El Nino and tightness in synthetic fertilizer availability occupy the discourse on agriculture.

 

The India Meteorological Department has downgraded its forecast of rainfall from the earlier 92% to 90% of long period average of 870 mm with a model error of +/- 4%. 90% of 870 mm translates to about 780 mm.

 

Terms like ‘Super El Nino’, severe drought and threat to food security are doing the rounds. So, how grave is the situation? The looming threat of El Nino is very real; but we do not yet know how severe it would turn out to be.   

 

First, it is important to recognize that the temporal (over four months) and spatial (geographic) distribution of rainfall is more critical than the total quantum of rains recorded at the end of the season. So, even a lower quantum of rainfall, say 800 mm, well distributed temporally and spatially can help reduce potential harvest losses.

 

We are truly at nature’s mercy. Water storage at major reservoirs across the country is barely satisfactory. Moreover, heatwave conditions of the last 6-8 weeks, especially in northern and central parts of the country, have resulted in loss of soil moisture. 

 

A good risk management principle is to build plausible scenarios and design strategies to mitigate adverse outcomes. District-wise contingency plan could well be the starting point for this.

 

As a weather phenomenon, El Nino is usually associated with lower rainfall, dry conditions and aberrant behavior of monsoon. It may result in early or late onset of monsoon, early or delayed withdrawal of rains, long intermittent periods of no precipitation or large number of cloudy days with no rains.

 

Such weather patterns confuse the crop and affect the growth cycle. For example, prolonged period of rainless cloud cover often result in pest proliferation and make the crops susceptible to pest attack.

 

This is where education and active handholding of growers becomes important. Engaging with farmers by using the domain expertise of agricultural universities and Krishi Vigyan Kendras would surely help mitigate risks to an extent.

 

From a food security perspective, our country is not in the danger zone. We have adequate public stocks of rice and wheat. State agencies like the Food Corporation of India procured well over 30 million tonnes of wheat in the just concluded Rabi harvest while rice stocks are at a decade high level of close to 40 million tonnes.

 

Export of sugar is suspended, while import of pulses is liberalized till March 2027. Edible oil availability in the global market is comfortable even though prices are high.

 

In sum, even if the Kharif 2026-27 output of major crops falls 10-12% from the previous year level, it would not compromise our food security. Surely, there would be supply tightness and resultant price rise. Overall, rural incomes may not rise and inflation will burn the pockets of the poor.

 

As inflation hits the poor the hardest, policymakers will have to deploy fiscal, monetary, trade, tariff and administrative measures in an appropriate manner to mitigate the negative fallout of El Nino. A four-decade-old statement that ‘Indian agriculture is a gamble on the monsoon’ rings true even today. We have miles to go before we can claim genuine food self-sufficiency to meet the food needs of people.