Even as the upcoming wheat crop is in the process of maturing and gradually readying for harvest in the next few weeks, rising day temperatures across many states in northern India may escalate risks to harvest size.

The government has set 119 million tonnes (MT) as wheat production target for 2025-26. As of January 31, the area under wheat cultivation stood at a record 33.4 million hectares, slightly more than 32.8 million hectares in the previous year. 

The government’s production estimate for 2024-25 was 117.9 MT although private estimates peg production 10% lower. The big question is whether day temperature over the next several weeks would hurt yields and size of upcoming harvest. 

While wheat bowl Punjab and Haryana continue to enjoy benign weather, concerns are creeping in States like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh where day temperatures have moved above the crop friendly 21-22 degrees Celsius in recent days.

That Indian wheat is at the limit of heat tolerance is widely recognized. In three out of the last six years, wheat crop has faced moisture stress and heat stress resulting in lower production, tighter supply situation and price rise.

Wheat export continues to remain banned since May 2022. Recently, the government has started to permit limited quantities of wheat flour in a regulated manner and is still weighing whether the suspension on wheat export should be lifted.

As of January 1, wheat stocks with the government procurement agency Food

Corporation of India (FCI) were 27.5 MT. After release of wheat for various welfare programs, the stock may decline to about 20 MT by April 1.

If weather risk to wheat crop were to materialize, it would not only hurt yields and total harvest size but can potentially send open market prices northwards and frustrate procurement efforts.

The procurement price for 2025-26 is set at Rs 2,585 a quintal (100 kilograms). Currently, market rates are hovering around that level. Weather can play spoilsport to push rates higher.

Traders, processors and retailers were subject to stock limits for last four years. The restriction was recently lifted because of industry representation and perceived improvement in market fundamentals. This move can prove counterproductive if weather risks upend the upcoming wheat harvest.

It is not just rising day temperatures, inadequate winter rains and moisture stress in key growing regions is adding to the risk facing wheat harvest. 

From January 1 to February 4, while the Indian sub-continent faced an overall -31% (minus 31%) rainfall deficit, East and Northeast region covering Uttar Pradesh and Bihar faced 88% deficit and central India (mainly Madhya Pradesh) 76% deficit. Northwest covering Punjab and Haryana show 10% rainfall deficit, according to India Meteorological Department.  

The possibility of El Nino in the second half of 2026 is another known unknown.

Whether it would be mild or severe, time will tell. El Nino is associated with dry weather conditions that can potentially hurt Kharif crop prospects including rice. That can provide tailwind to wheat prices.

This is not to raise an alarm and not to assert that our wheat crop is sure to face heat stress damage, but to provide a notice of caution for the policymakers about the possibility. Monitoring temperature in key wheat growing regions will provide early warning signals. Forewarned is forearmed.