We are living in a disruptive decade, having witnessed a series of catastrophic events last six years. Starting with the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020 and followed by the Russia-Ukraine military action since early 2022 as well as Israel-Hamas conflict in 2024 the world has gone through multiple crises. 

In early 2025, US President Donald Trump’s indiscriminate imposition of trade tariffs further skewered the world trade order. Sanctions, protectionism, resource nationalism, counter-tariffs, disruption of established supply chains, price volatility and inflation became the norm. Geopolitical instability and geo-economic uncertainty combined. The lingering effects of these are still visible on world trade and international relations. 

As if all this was not enough we now have the US/Israel joint military action against Iran. Not just the Persian Gulf countries, the whole world is facing collateral damage. Energy security of import dependent countries is at risk. These successive events are set to exert profound, and possibly lasting, effect on government policies and international relations. 

Importantly, what was once rare is now normal. Geopolitical risks, for example. Several hotspots across Continents are vulnerable to geopolitical stresses. It may be naïve to assume that the world has seen the last of military conflict. 

The global policy context is becoming increasingly complex. Governments often ride on the horns of a dilemma as the situation calls for striking a judicious balance between meeting domestic socio-economic and political compulsions on the one hand and international trade obligations on the other. Often, domestic compulsions outweigh external obligations. 

We live in a VUCA world characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. Navigating these conditions demands resilience.         

Amidst this, the word ‘security’ in all its ramifications has assumed heightened importance. Countries and corporations are scrambling to achieve security on multiple fronts – energy security, food security, investment security, and not the least, military / national security.

Self-reliance and diversification have become the new mantras. Given the skewed endowment of natural resources across geographies, self-reliance often ends up as a chimera. Countries and corporates are continually re-evaluating supply sources for import and destination markets for export. ‘Near-shoring’ or ‘friend-shoring’ is now the buzzword. 

Dependence on a single supply source for import or single market for export is now giving way to renewed realization that over time, dependency can turn into vulnerability. So, de-risk through diversification. 

Countries and corporates are learning agility, the capacity to stay nimble / flexible enough to face rapidly changing economic / market conditions. Equally important is resilience, the management of men, money and material on long time horizon. It is here the role (read, matured approach) of the government of a country and the CEO of corporate houses becomes critical.  

Energy transition, sustainability advancement and tech infusion have become new age imperative. Navigating the choppy waters calls for grit, foresight and patience.