Gold and silver strengthened as softer U.S. inflation reinforced the impact of July’s weak labour-market report and reduced expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate hike. July CPI rose modestly, while producer prices were unchanged, pushing Treasury yields and the dollar lower and supporting non-yielding bullion. Gold reached a high, with silver also benefiting from the improved monetary backdrop. In the coming week, focus shifts towards the Fed’s July meeting minutes for further guidance on policymakers’ inflation and rate outlook. Evidence of greater caution towards tightening could extend support for precious metals, while any renewed hawkish messaging may trigger consolidation. Persistent uncertainty surrounding Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and Middle Eastern security risks should preserve safe haven demand, while central-bank purchases remain an underlying support for gold.

WTI crude oil remained volatile during the previous week as stalled U.S.-Iran diplomacy and uncertainty over reopening the Strait of Hormuz maintained a geopolitical premium. Negotiations involving Iran and Oman advanced but failed to produce a full reopening, while security threats kept shipping conditions fragile. However, an exceptionally large increase in U.S. crude inventories and weaker demand projections from both the IEA and OPEC restrained the market. Going forward, Hormuz shipping flows and U.S.-Iran negotiations will remain dominant drivers. Further restrictions on tanker movements, attacks on vessels or deterioration in diplomacy could reinforce supply concerns, while progress towards reopening would reduce the geopolitical premium. The Fed minutes, U.S. inventory data and Chinese demand indicators matter, with weakening consumption expectations and ample non-disrupted supply potentially limiting stronger gains despite Middle Eastern risks. 

Gold 

Gold traded just below $4,400 an ounce on Monday, holding steady as investors weighed subdued US economic data that reduced expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike against persistent tensions in the Middle East. Data released last week pointed to tame US inflation, while consumer sentiment and retail sales weakened. Markets now see roughly a one-in-three chance of a Fed rate hike in September, down from nearly 50% before the data. Investors are now awaiting the FOMC’s latest meeting minutes and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium for further guidance. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East remain elevated after Israel launched fresh strikes on Lebanon over the weekend, while President Donald Trump is preparing new economic sanctions aimed at forcing Iran to surrender. Still, Middle Eastern producers are covertly moving millions of barrels of crude through the Strait of Hormuz. 

Silver rose toward $66 an ounce on Monday, extending gains from the previous session as subdued US economic data reduced expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Data released last week pointed to tame US inflation, while consumer sentiment and retail sales weakened. Markets now see roughly a one-in-three chance of a Fed rate hike in September, down from nearly 50% before the data. Investors are now awaiting the FOMC’s latest meeting minutes and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium for further guidance. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East remain elevated after Israel launched fresh strikes on Lebanon over the weekend, while President Donald Trump is preparing new economic sanctions aimed at forcing Iran to surrender. Still, Middle Eastern producers are covertly moving millions of barrels of crude through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping oil prices in check and easing concerns about inflationary risks. 

Crude oil traded around $82.5 per barrel on Monday, holding onto last week’s gains as tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, keeping markets wary of further supply disruptions. Over the weekend, Israel launched fresh strikes on Lebanon that killed 11 people, including a senior Hezbollah commander. President Donald Trump is also preparing new economic sanctions aimed at forcing Iran to surrender, as pressure mounts on his administration to bring the military campaign to an end. The interim ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran is set to formally expire later today, while negotiations to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain deadlocked. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern producers are covertly moving millions of barrels of crude through the waterway, helping to limit further price gains. Iran and Oman also appear to be moving closer to an agreement on how to manage the Strait of Hormuz, although the US is not participating in the talks.

Technical View: Bullish chart structures point towards daily objectives at $85.65/86.05(MCX:8190/8230) before extending towards the weekly target at 89.25(MCX:8530), with solid underlying supports resting at 79.30(MCX:7585) and 78.50(MCX:7505) A break below the 78.25(MCX:7480 ) risk point would cause the structure to lose its bullishness, leaving it vulnerable to a fall towards 73.85(MCX:7060).  

Copper futures jumped above $6.7 per pound on Monday, moving toward fresh record highs amid further signs of tightening global supply. China’s refined copper output is expected to decline for a second consecutive month in August as persistent shortages of copper concentrate and other smelter feedstocks continue to weigh on operating rates, highlighting increasingly tight raw material availability. At the same time, tighter domestic tax-invoice regulations have reduced the availability of VAT compliant recycled copper, limiting another key source of smelter feedstock and putting further pressure on refined output. In top producer Chile, state-owned miner Codelco reportedly expects copper production to decline this year as it faces setbacks at its mines and development projects. Traders also remained cautious about potential US import tariffs on copper, which have continued to divert metal away from international markets and into US warehouses.

Technical View: Charts indicate a test of the next upside objective at 6.85/90(MCX:1410/1417). Favored view is bullish in the near term. Supports at $6.55/50(MCX:1375/1367). Unexpected fall below 6.36(MCX:1350) critical trendline support can risk turning the picture bearish.