Gold and silver enter the week with recovery potential as easing oil prices offer some relief from inflation fears, although elevated Treasury yields and a dollar near 18 month highs continue to restrict buying interest. Recent weakness in bullion reflected rising borrowing costs and renewed expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening, while geopolitical uncertainty and continued central-bank gold purchases provide underlying support. Attention now shifts to Wednesday's US consumer inflation report, followed by producer prices, retail sales and industrial production. Softer core inflation could ease pressure on yields and encourage further recovery, particularly in silver if industrial sentiment improves. However, another energy driven inflation surprise could strengthen the dollar and delay monetary easing. The interaction between inflation expectations, real yields and geopolitical risk will determine whether bullion's rebound gains traction. 

WTI enters the week under pressure as prospects of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and additional Russian diesel supplies ease concerns over global fuel availability. The retreat also reflects expectations of recovering Gulf of Mexico production following Hurricane Isaias, reducing the urgency surrounding temporary US supply losses. Nevertheless, Middle Eastern risks remain substantial, with renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and continued tanker disruptions around Hormuz threatening regional exports. Diplomatic developments could encourage further liquidation of geopolitical premiums, but fresh attacks or prolonged shipping restrictions would quickly reverse sentiment. Attention this week will centre on the durability of ceasefire negotiations, offshore production restoration and EIA inventory figures. Refinery demand, commercial stock movements and tanker traffic will determine whether improving supply availability outweighs persistent regional security risks.

Gold prices climbed above $4,200 an ounce on Monday, extending gains for a third straight session as falling oil prices, driven by hopes that Russian diesel supplies could ease global fuel shortages, helped alleviate inflation concerns. On Friday, President Donald Trump said his administration had reached an agreement for Russia to supply hundreds of thousands of tons of diesel, signaling a partial lifting of Moscow’s ban on diesel exports. Trump also claimed that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an “energy ceasefire” effective immediately. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s main airport was targeted again on Sunday by Iran-backed Houthi militants, a day after a strike killed 12 people and injured more than 300. The attacks prompted Trump to consider joining Saudi Arabia in retaliatory action against the Houthis in Yemen. Elsewhere, investors looked ahead to key US inflation figures this week that could offer fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. 

Silver prices climbed above $61 an ounce on Monday, extending gains from the previous session as falling oil prices, driven by hopes that Russian diesel supplies could ease global fuel shortages, helped alleviate inflation concerns. On Friday, President Donald Trump said his administration had reached an agreement for Russia to supply hundreds of thousands of tons of diesel, signaling a partial lifting of Moscow’s ban on diesel exports. Trump also claimed that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an “energy ceasefire” effective immediately. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s main airport was targeted again on Sunday by Iran-backed Houthi militants, a day after a strike killed 12 people and injured more than 300. The attacks prompted Trump to consider joining Saudi Arabia in retaliatory action against the Houthis in Yemen. Elsewhere, investors looked ahead to key US inflation figures this week that could offer fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.

Crude oil prices fell toward $90 per barrel on Monday, ending a two-session rally as expectations that Russian diesel supplies could help alleviate global fuel shortages weighed on prices. On Friday, President Donald Trump said his administration had reached an agreement for Russia to provide hundreds of thousands of tons of diesel fuel, signalling a partial easing of Moscow’s export ban. Trump also claimed that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an “energy ceasefire” that would take effect immediately. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s main airport was targeted again on Sunday by Iran-backed Houthi militants, a day after an earlier strike killed 12 people and injured more than 300. The attacks prompted Trump to consider joining Saudi Arabia in retaliatory action against the Houthis in Yemen. Separately, a drone struck a tanker near the Sohar anchorage off Oman over the weekend, just outside the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting persistent risks to global energy supplies. 

Copper prices are higher in early Asian trading hours, supported by tight mine supply and low inventories, CICC Wealth Futures Research Institute analysts write in a note. However, elevated prices continue to weigh on downstream demand, while spot market transactions remain subdued despite sellers lowering offers, they say. Prices are likely to remain range-bound at high levels in the near term, with supply tightness and low inventories providing a floor, they add. Investors will watch for a recovery in downstream orders as production resumes. The three-month LME copper contract is up 0.4% at $14,595.50 a ton.