Gold and silver under pressure as higher oil prices, firm Treasury yields and expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening reduce the appeal of non-yielding bullion. Gold fell as rate-hike expectations strengthened, while silver resumed its decline as stalled US-Iran negotiations kept energy-related inflation risks elevated. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and US employment data will therefore be important catalysts this week, particularly for expectations surrounding October policy action. Middle East uncertainty still provides some safe-haven support, but its impact is being offset by the stronger dollar and elevated yields. For the coming week, bullion could remain volatile and defensive, with softer US data or easing oil prices offering recovery potential, while persistent inflation pressures and hawkish Fed commentary could extend downside pressure. WTI prices are firmer after the US rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, delaying expectations for a restoration of Middle Eastern oil flows. Washington nevertheless expects negotiations to resume, while Tehran has indicated that it will not soften its conditions, keeping diplomacy uncertain. Regional security risks also remain elevated after Saudi Arabia intercepted Houthi drones and missiles, including threats near areas containing energy infrastructure. At the same time, speculation over possible US restrictions on diesel exports adds another layer of uncertainty to refined-product availability. For the coming week, crude is likely to remain sensitive to US-Iran negotiations and Hormuz access. Any diplomatic breakthrough could ease the supply premium, while renewed attacks, prolonged restrictions or stalled talks could keep prices supported. 

Gold slipped to around $4,190 an ounce on Monday, approaching its lowest levels in seven weeks as stalled US-Iran negotiations kept oil prices elevated and reinforced expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening to curb inflation. President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, saying Tehran had overplayed its hand while adding that he expects talks to resume this week. Meanwhile, Iran said it would not soften its conditions for reopening the strategically important waterway. In the US, several Fed officials cited resilient economic growth and a robust labor market as reasons additional rate hikes could be necessary. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said those factors, together with concerns over government debt, are contributing to higher long-term Treasury yields. Investors now await the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and key US jobs data due this week, which could provide further clues on the path of monetary policy. 

Silver slipped below $64 an ounce on Monday, resuming its decline as stalled US Iran negotiations kept oil prices elevated and reinforced expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening to curb inflation. President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, saying Tehran had overplayed its hand while adding that he expects talks to resume this week. Meanwhile, Iran said it would not soften its conditions for reopening the strategically important waterway. In the US, several Fed officials cited resilient economic growth and a robust labor market as reasons additional rate hikes could be necessary. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said those factors, together with concerns over government debt, are contributing to higher long-term Treasury yields. Investors now await the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and key US jobs data due this week, which could provide further clues on the path of monetary policy.

Crude oil climbed above $93 per barrel on Monday, recovering some of the previous session’s losses after President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns that the restoration of oil flows through the critical waterway could face further delays. Trump also said Tehran had overplayed its hand and expects negotiations to resume this week. Meanwhile, Iran said it is waiting for a definitive US response to its seven-day proposal to reopen the strait and other demands, adding that it will not ease its conditions after Trump rejected Tehran’s latest plan. Elsewhere in the Middle East, tensions remain high as Saudi Arabia intercepted Houthi drones heading toward Riyadh, along with a missile targeting Khamis Mushait in the south. Alerts were also issued in Abha and Jazan, where Aramco operates energy facilities. In the US, Trump is considering a ban on diesel exports as part of efforts to address elevated fuel prices.

Copper futures in the US traded near $6.70 per pound, remaining close to the record high of $6.80 touched on September 8th, amid sharp setbacks to global supply and robust demand from electrification. Operations were suspended without a timeline for restart at BHP's Escondida copper mine in Chile—the largest in the world—after an accident resulted in the death of a worker, raising the risk of strikes while union members were already in contract negotiations with the mining giant. The disruption magnifies supply pressures as multiple refineries in China schedule maintenance at the start of the fourth quarter. Consequently, the copper prompt spread on the LME widened to its highest level so far this month. Meanwhile, manufacturing activity in the US surged during September, reflecting solid demand for the base metal. Longer term demand is also underpinned by soaring orders for global electrification projects, including data centres in the US and energy storage infrastructure in China.