Gold and silver enter the week under pressure after stronger-than-expected US employment data reinforced expectations of a possible September Federal Reserve rate hike, supporting the dollar and Treasury yields. Attention now shifts toward US producer inflation on Thursday and consumer inflation on Friday, which could materially reshape expectations ahead of the September 15–16 Fed meeting. Persistent inflation would maintain pressure on non-yielding bullion. However, escalating US-Iran hostilities, including renewed attacks around the Strait of Hormuz, continue to strengthen safe-haven demand. Concerns surrounding US fiscal sustainability and elevated long-term Treasury yields also remain supportive structurally. For the coming week, gold and silver are therefore likely to remain highly sensitive to inflation data, yields and the dollar, while intensifying Middle East tensions provide an important counterbalance to tighter monetary-policy expectations. WTI enters the week with renewed strength after gaining nearly 10% last week, as escalating US-Iran hostilities reversed earlier expectations of improving flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Tit-for-tat attacks on vessels, including US strikes on Iranian oil tankers, have reduced traffic through the waterway and revived concerns over prolonged Middle East supply disruptions. Brent has consequently returned toward $97/barrel, while WTI is trading above $92. Iran’s plans for an exclusion zone near Hormuz add another layer of uncertainty. For the coming week, Hormuz vessel movements, further US-Iran military action and prospects for renewed diplomacy will remain the dominant drivers. US inflation data and Federal Reserve expectations will also matter through their impact on the dollar and demand expectations, but geopolitical supply risks currently remain the market’s primary focus. 

Gold traded near $4,400 an ounce on Monday after declining about 1% in the previous session, pressured by growing expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate hike following stronger-than-expected US jobs data last week. Data released Friday showed US nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, following an upwardly revised increase of 23,000 in July and well above market expectations for a gain of 56,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, while annual wage growth slowed to 3.1%, although the decline was smaller than economists had expected. Markets increased bets on a September Fed rate hike to roughly 60%, up from around 50% before the data release. Gold also remained under pressure from higher oil prices as the US and Iran exchanged strikes on ships over the weekend, stoking concerns about renewed inflationary pressures. 

 

Silver traded near $66 an ounce on Monday after losing more than 1% in the previous session, pressured by growing expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate hike following stronger-than-expected US jobs data last week. Data released Friday showed US nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, following an upwardly revised increase of 23,000 in July and well above market expectations for a gain of 56,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, while annual wage growth slowed to 3.1%, although the decline was smaller than economists had expected. Markets increased bets on a September Fed rate hike to roughly 60%, up from around 50% before the data release. Silver also remained under pressure from higher oil prices as the US and Iran exchanged strikes on ships over the weekend, stoking concerns about renewed inflationary pressures.

 

Technical View: Rallies to be capped around the $67(MCX:241650) zone for a move to $78/79(MCX:281300/284800). Unexpected fall below $65.00(MCX:234400) could postpone the bullishness.  

Crude oil rose above $92 per barrel on Monday, extending last week’s gains as the US and Iran exchanged strikes in the Middle East, fueling concerns over prolonged disruptions to energy flows from the region. The US targeted three Iranian oil tankers over the weekend in retaliation for ballistic missile attacks on US Navy warships. In response, Tehran said a new restricted zone would be established outside the Strait of Hormuz, including a US Navy blockade line and extending into parts of the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the US would maintain its naval presence in the Middle East, including the blockade designed to curb Iranian oil exports and help ensure the safe passage of commercial vessels through Hormuz. Fighting between the two sides resumed last week after roughly a month of relative calm, pushing oil prices about 10% higher as markets reassessed geopolitical and supply risks.

 

Copper futures slipped to around $6.55 per pound on Monday, ending a two-day rally as stronger-than-expected US jobs data strengthened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this month, weighing on the demand outlook for industrial metals. Investors also assessed rising inflation risks after oil prices extended their gains as the US and Iran exchanged strikes on ships over the weekend. Still, copper remained near record highs amid persistent concerns over supply. Analysts pointed to a recent export ban in Congo, weaker production from major producers Chile and Peru, and disruptions associated with El Nino. Data showed top producer Chile recorded its weakest second-quarter output in at least 19 years. The country also lowered its full year production forecast for a second consecutive quarter and now expects output to decline 2.6%. Elsewhere, uncertainty over tariffs continues to encourage copper shipments into the US, pushing Comex inventories to record levels.